High Point

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	273.0
Current RPI:	273
Expected SOS:	309
Current SOS:	309
Current Record:	11-16
Expected Record:	11-16
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-9
Current OOC Record:	2-6
Expected OOC Record:	2-6
Expected OOC RPI:	271
Expected OOC SOS:	217

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-16	273.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for High Point.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	H	100-66	W	100%
11-14	Tennessee (8.0)	SEC	A	84-53	L	0%
11-18	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	H	77-79	L	0%
11-24	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	A	70-67	L	0%
11-28	Pittsburgh (217.0)	ACC	A	71-63	L	0%
12-4	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	A	70-58	L	0%
12-17	Wofford (129.0)	SC	N	57-70	L	0%
12-19	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	A	61-72	W	100%
12-30	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	A	76-60	L	0%
1-3	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	H	84-74	W	100%
1-6	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	H	80-59	W	100%
1-9	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	A	62-45	L	0%
1-12	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	A	65-64	L	0%
1-15	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	H	73-49	W	100%
1-18	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	H	71-60	W	100%
1-21	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	A	55-75	W	100%
1-24	Radford (128.0)	BSth	H	76-78	L	0%
1-27	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	A	84-77	L	0%
2-1	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	A	83-74	L	0%
2-3	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	H	67-56	W	100%
2-7	Radford (128.0)	BSth	A	60-61	W	100%
2-10	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	H	70-82	L	0%
2-15	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	A	69-62	L	0%
2-18	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	H	66-65	W	100%
2-22	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	H	75-56	W	100%
2-24	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	A	65-45	L	0%
2-27	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	H	55-68	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

High Point's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

High Point's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against High Point.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
High Point	BSth	26.53	26.53	40.54	40.54	-5.02	-5.02
Longwood	BSth	6.62	6.62	11.11	11.11	-5.15	-5.15
Radford	BSth	5.00	5.00	63.33	63.33	1.33	1.33
UNC Asheville	BSth	4.96	4.96	62.07	62.07	1.20	1.20
Liberty	BSth	4.96	4.96	55.17	55.17	0.51	0.51
Presbyterian	BSth	4.90	4.90	25.93	25.93	-2.36	-2.36
Charleston Southern	BSth	4.89	4.89	42.31	42.31	-0.75	-0.75
Winthrop	BSth	4.89	4.89	53.85	53.85	0.38	0.38
Campbell	BSth	4.86	4.86	46.15	46.15	-0.37	-0.37
Gardner Webb	BSth	4.83	4.83	37.04	37.04	-1.25	-1.25
Western Carolina	SC	2.07	2.07	37.93	37.93	-0.50	-0.50
The Citadel	SC	2.04	2.04	25.00	25.00	-1.02	-1.02
Wofford	SC	2.04	2.04	58.62	58.62	0.35	0.35
College of Charleston	CAA	2.01	2.01	76.67	76.67	1.07	1.07
Charlotte	CUSA	1.95	1.95	14.81	14.81	-1.37	-1.37
William & Mary	CAA	1.94	1.94	60.71	60.71	0.42	0.42
Tennessee	SEC	1.92	1.92	75.00	75.00	0.96	0.96
Pittsburgh	ACC	1.85	1.85	22.58	22.58	-1.02	-1.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.53	0.53	77.42	77.42	0.29	0.29
VMI	SC	0.50	0.50	25.00	25.00	-0.25	-0.25
Furman	SC	0.37	0.37	67.74	67.74	0.13	0.13
Mercer	SC	0.31	0.31	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.26	0.26	10.71	10.71	-0.20	-0.20
James Madison	CAA	0.25	0.25	29.03	29.03	-0.10	-0.10
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.23	0.23	26.67	26.67	-0.11	-0.11
Chattanooga	SC	0.22	0.22	25.81	25.81	-0.11	-0.11
Delaware	CAA	0.22	0.22	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.19	0.19	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.19	0.19	71.88	71.88	0.08	0.08
Samford	SC	0.19	0.19	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Towson	CAA	0.18	0.18	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Elon	CAA	0.18	0.18	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.16	0.16	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
East Carolina	Amer	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.15	0.15	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.15	0.15	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Hofstra	CAA	0.12	0.12	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Clemson	ACC	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.12	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Davidson	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UCF	Amer	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.09	0.09	26.92	26.92	-0.04	-0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.09	0.09	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.07	0.07	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
FIU	CUSA	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
VCU	A10	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.06	-0.06
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Houston	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Monmouth	MAAC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Louisville	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.03	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02